The Polarization of Inequality Perceptions in the New Gilded Age

A growing social science literature finds that Americans tend to underestimate levels of socioeconomic inequality, but this work has not considered the historical evolution of distributional perceptions in an era of rising economic polarization. We draw on historical public opinion data from 1966–2013 to explain the shifting bases of inequality perceptions. Trends in perceptions of economic polarization are inversely correlated with trends in actual distributional inequality, with a surprising decline in the share of Americans who perceive inequality to be growing during the 1990s and early 2000s. Regression and simulation analyses demonstrate how this decline was asymmetrically concentrated among identified Republicans. Patterns of inequality perceptions reflect a growing class divide within the Republican Party. It is this intersection, rather than self-reinforcing meritocratic myths or differential local exposure to real inequality, that explains the counterintuitive decline of perceived economic polarization during the 1990s and 2000s.