Future Trends in Global AI Governance

This book chapter examines possible directions for future AI governance based on insights from early 21st century AI policy and discourse. It lays out a typology of key dimensions that serve as meaningful fault lines: decisions related to centralization versus decentralization, robust versus minimalistic monitoring and enforcement, adaptive versus enduring regulation, private leadership versus shared control, and a broad versus targeted scope of concern around AI’s social and ethical impacts. After examining these characteristics and associated trade-offs, it reviews four analogous models in technology governance which bundle these dimensions in various ways: the aviation, climate change, organic food, and open-source software policy regimes. These models serve as a useful starting point for the chapter’s examination of how AI governance is developing-including which paths appear more settled-and what key contingencies and opportunities remain. It concludes that persistent hard work will be necessary to shape a better future for all.