Dealing With Uncertain Futures: Communicating Scientific Modeling in the Public Sphere—A Systematic Review

This article systematically reviews research on public engagement with models of future developments, such as pandemic forecasting or climate change projections. It examines how different actors and stakeholders interpret (often motivated) and communicate (often strategically) scientific uncertainties. So far, lay decision-makers have been studied mostly as receivers. They can handle uncertainty best when expressed in numbers, such as probabilities. In contrast, communicators often fail to provide such information, partly due to misunderstandings about their audience’s needs. The biggest research gaps concern how scientific uncertainty is portrayed by stakeholders in the public sphere, especially on social media.