Presumed media influence and support for social media bans: The roles of social and elite-based validation

The study examines how presumed influences of social media on young people, as well as perceptions of how widely such beliefs are shared, shape support for social media bans. Extending the Influence of Presumed Influence (IPI) model, we introduce second-order presumed influences, defined as perceptions about how widely others presume media influences, and propose a mechanism of social validation. We additionally examine elite-based validation, referring to perceived beliefs of influential actors (i.e. scientists, politicians, and the media), as well as perceived social norms. Using survey data (N = 1270) collected in the context of debates about a social media ban for minors under 16 in Switzerland, we find that stronger presumed influences predict support for a ban. While we find no support for social validation, the results point to the relevance of elite-related perceptions, particularly presumed scientific consensus. Perceived social norms of ban support emerge as an additional predictor of regulatory preferences.