Analysing the US-China “AI Cold War” Narrative

Discussions about artificial intelligence (AI) are gaining prominence in the recent revival of “cold war” narratives comparing US-China relations today to the historical rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union. Drawing on a review of existing academic and policy literature engaging with the “AI cold war” narrative, this paper examines how the narrative is justified, and numerous ways that it can be challenged. It finds that the framing is largely driven by the securitisation of AI, as state actors and policy pundits view AI innovations’ dual-use capabilities as key to national security and ideological competition. However, critics posit that the narrative exaggerates China’s AI capabilities, promotes commercial interests of tech firms and defence contractors, creates self-reinforced militarisation, and undermines the potential for international research and regulatory cooperation. Moreover, the Cold War binary framing may misrepresent the global distribution of AI capabilities. To extend beyond the AI cold war narrative, future research may recognise the limitations of the binary framing and expand analysis on the AI development strategies of third-party players (including those from the Global South) drawing upon local and regional political economic dynamics and development contexts. This paper concludes by inviting scholars to rethink the affective power of narratives and contribute research and narrative analysis that allow for the articulation of perspectives from third countries.