When campaigns go on the attack: the roles of incumbency, personalization, and issue in Meta campaigns in India

How do incumbency, personalization, and issue focus shape the tone of campaign advertisements in the digital age? This study addresses this theoretical question by examining the dynamics of negative campaigning in three Indian state elections; Bihar 2020, West Bengal 2021, and Uttar Pradesh 2022. Using Meta’s Ad Library API, we analyzed Meta ads released by political parties, focusing on how incumbents navigate campaign strategies in the digital realm. Contrary to expectations that incumbents avoid negative campaigning to maintain their dignified status, our findings reveal no consistent relationship between incumbency and attack ads. Personalization emerged as a contextual factor, with its influence on incumbent’s negative campaigning varying significantly across the three elections. Similarly, issue-focused advertisements by incumbents were less likely to adopt a negative tone in two elections, suggesting that incumbents strategically adjust their messaging based on issue salience. These findings advance theoretical debates on the interplay between incumbency, personalization, and issue ownership while emphasizing the transformative role of digital platforms in contemporary campaigning. By bridging gaps in cross-level comparative research, this study highlights the nuanced and context-dependent nature of digital campaign strategies, providing insights into the evolving dynamics of political communication in India’s democratic landscape.