Visual narratives and political instability: a case study of visual media prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Governments increasingly deploy propaganda on social media, often through visually charged political messages. This study introduces a novel methodology, combining AI-driven image clustering with expert review, to analyze the vast quantities of visual content shared by 989 Russian milbloggers on Telegram surrounding Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Our analysis revealed an 8925% increase (p<0.001) in the number of posts and a 5352% increase (p<0.001) in the number of images shared by these accounts in the two weeks prior to the invasion. A similar rise was observed in the number and intensity of manipulated images aimed at reinforcing ingroup solidarity, exacerbating outgroup vulnerability, and fostering epistemic insecurity – key psychological mechanisms in conflict contexts. While this study does not address the origins of these activities, our findings underscore the need to investigate the role of visual propaganda in shaping public opinion and contributing to conflict escalation.