For years, Western experts have opined that Russia excels in disinformation. Russia’s war on Ukraine has demonstrated that such assertions are themselves a form of disinformation. Much like its military campaign, Moscow’s information war has been incompetent and unconvincing, and there are multiple reasons for its failures.
Above all, Russian President Vladimir Putin miscalculated the Western responses in the days leading up to the war, just as he failed to understand the resolve of the Ukrainian government and its people. Kremlin leaders were clearly taken by surprise by Washington’s partial release of classified information about their political tactics and military objectives, including potential “false flag” operations in staging provocations in the Donbas.
Moscow resorted to giving a very convoluted and unconvincing explanation as to why Russia felt “insecure,” allegedly because of NATO enlargement. This lacked all credibility when looking at the small number of multi-national NATO forces along its eastern flank, overshadowed by the much larger Russian presence on NATO’s borders. The months-long buildup of Russian troops around Ukraine was not matched by any significant NATO escalation.